This includes what is sometimes referred to as "Shadow Inventory".
The data is for the County of Maricopa and includes only single family property types (assessor land use codes 01 and 86).
There are five categories of homes and the number of homes in each category can be individually displayed or hidden depending on which part of the inventory you wish to analyze.
1. Pending Foreclosures - these are homes with an active Notice of Trustee Sale. Some of these will avoid foreclosure through loan modification, successful short sale or other means. If the trustee sale goes ahead then the property may be purchased by a third party and so avoid entering the REO inventory. Thus only a proportion of this inventory will end up in the hands of the lender or government equivalent (e.g. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, VA or HUD).
2. Unlisted REOs - these are properties which failed to sell at the trustee's auction and reverted to the beneficiary. These "REO" properties have not yet been listed for sale on ARMLS but are likely to be going through the lender's preparations for sale. Some may pass from one lender to another before being marketed.
3. Active REOs - these are owned by lenders and are actively being marketed for sale through the ARMLS system. They may or may not have a contingent contract.
4. Pending REO Sales - these are listed on ARMLS but already have a completed firm contract for sale and are awaiting their close of escrow.
5. Listed but Off Market - these are listed on ARMLS but are temporarily suspended from marketing for some reason.
PENDING FORECLOSURES - these are homes with an active Notice of Trustee Sale.
Myth: The banks are not completing the foreclosure process because they don't want foreclosures on their books..."
Fact: PENDING FORECLOSURES have dropped from 35,235 in November 2010 to under 20,000 in November 2011. A "normal" market would have approximately 8,000 Pending Foreclosures in the system at all times.
UNLISTED REOs - these are properties which failed to sell at the trustee's auction and reverted to the beneficiary.
Myth: SHADOW INVENTORY!!! Banks are holding all of these properties back and are doing to DUMP them onto the market in June 2011. Hello...it's now December 2011...where are they?
Fact: There is in fact a DECREASE in the homes that have gone to Auction, weren't purchased and now are owned by the Bank..but aren't listed in ARMLS. Where is the SHADOW INVENTORY??? Pre-Foreclosures are down, Unlisted Foreclosures are down....again, WHERE IS THE SHADOW INVENTORY?
ACTIVE REOs - these are owned by lenders and are actively being marketed for sale through the ARMLS system. They may or may not have a contingent contract.
FACT: Phoenix Bank-Owned Listings have fallen dramatically, from almost 7,000 in November 2010 to under 2,000 in November 2011.
PENDING REO SALES - these are listed on ARMLS but already have a completed firm contract for sale and are awaiting their close of escrow and LISTED BUT OFF THE MARKET - these are listed on ARMLS but are temporarily suspended from marketing for some reason.
FACT: Pending REO Sales are down because Bank Owned Properties (REOs) are DOWN.
BOTTOM LINE:
1. There is NO SHADOW INVENTORY.
2. Bank-Owned Listings in Phoenix will continue to fall. WHY? Because the number of homes in the earlier stages is falling.....
See "Have We Hit Bottom Yet? When will Prices Rise?" for a complete analysis of the Arizona Real Estate Market.
SOURCE: The Cromford Report, November 1, 2011
